'They won all battles, we had the best songs' -- Team Modi, Jaitley, says Swapan Dasgupta
"They won all the battles, we had the best songs"*
[* A line from a Communist song from the Spanish Civil War]
Apologies for not writing yesterday. I was busy pontificating on TV and finishing my columns which have appeared in today's Times of India and Pioneer. Then I was out late at night commiserating with some friends in the BJP. My only bit of good news was the spectacular third-term victory of Naveen Patnaik in Orissa. I telephoned him and congratulated him for rewriting the rules of electoral politics.
Anyway, to come back to Election 2009, let me present some blunt home truths:
This was a positive vote for the Congress, including Sonia and Rahul.
The contribution of Manmohan Singh to the victory was significant. In hindsight, he was the unquestioned winner of the "weak" versus "strong" debate.
It was Manmohan's perceived decency that mattered to the electorate.
The under-30 youth vote went overwhelmingly in favour of the Congress. The Congress reinvented itself as a party where youth matters; the BJP was seen as hidebound.
The media helped project Congress as wholesome; the BJP was seen as ugly. Varun Gandhi may have won Pilibhit but he lost the BJP lakhs of votes nationally.
The middle class vote deserted the BJP and gave Congress the extra cutting edge--just see the margins of victory in Delhi.
The loan waiver and NREGA helped blunt possible anti-incumbency.
People voted by and large on national lines. This was not an aggregate of state elections. There was a national swing in favour of the Congress.
In UP, we are seeing the restoration of the Congress coalition which was broken in 1991. Both BJP and BSP are likely to be casualties.
What are the specific lessons for the BJP?
The party must recognise that this was a political failure and not merely a defeat caused by management shortcomings.
The so-called "Hindu" appeal may work in specific areas (Pilibhit, Mangalore, Azamgarh, Kandhamal, et al) but it is perceived as divisive elsewhere.
The ugly face of Hindu extremism puts off the middle ground.
There is no such thing as a Hindu consciousness that exists today. The nationalist middle ground has shifted to the Congress.
The BJP leadership is seen as completely unresponsive to youth aspirations and modernity.
There is a tendency of the BJP to preach to the committed and not reach outwards.
In caste terms, we are witnessing a definite drift of the upper castes to the Congress.
The OBCs are now the bedrock of the BJP but this has not been formally acknowledged.
The RSS-isation of the BJP organisation post-2005 has created serious distortions.
The integrity quotient of the BJP is now at par with that of the Congress. This is a problem that the moral guardians of the party have wilfully turned a blind eye to.
What should the BJP do immediately?
Recognise the magnitude of defeat and not live in denial (as happened in 2004).
There has to be some visible demonstration of the fact that the party has responded to the message. Advani was right to step down and the Parliamentary Board was wrong to reject it. There is still a very important role for Advani but his position is that of a mentor.
There has to be a revamp of most state parties. Young, dynamic MLAs and MPs must be given organisational responsibilities.
The RSS-non-RSS divide in the party must be bridged. Those who never attended shakhas can't be treated as second-class members.
The BJP must focus on the policy debates in the coming two years. Interventions in Parliament must be given due importance. The Leaders of Opposition in both Houses must be chosen accordingly.
The party needs to project a modern, cosmopolitan face as national president to woo back the middle classes. What is needed is a picture of wholesome sobriety. The sooner this is done the better.
A culture of frankness and debate has to return to the party. The miscalculations resulting from telling the leadership what it wanted to hear were colossal.
Modi has to add the OBC tag to his appeal. His pronouncements must become more measured. He has to work on his national acceptability.
Stringent norms of fund collection should be set. The private war chests have caused havoc to the functioning of the party.
Of course, there are many more issues that have to be thrashed out. But these are just some initial reactions to a silent wave for the Congress that few of us predicted.
Already I have seen some diagnosis of the debacle on the web. I can only gather that the temptation to fall back on old certitudes has proved irresistible to a few. Which is why I cited the lines from the Spanish Civil War song in the heading.
More or less NAMO
My previous post attracted nearly 75 responses in less than 24 hours. I thank everyone for taking the time to address the question.
Predictably, there was no unanimity. But there were two broad strands of thought:
Those who want the BJP to take on an uncompromisingly pro-Hindutva stand and assert its identity on that basis.
Those who feel that Hindutva's time has past and therefore it is more prudent and electorally judicious for the BJP to become a more conventional right-of-centre party. Of course, this stand was coupled with interesting suggestions (drawn from marketing) of how to increase the BJP's appeal.
I got a feeling that those who opted for the first course tended to be based outside India. One of them even recommended that people like me should be thrown out of the party--a difficult proposition because I am not a member of the party. Another identified me as a member of the anti-RSS faction.
I don't feel there is any need to personalise the debate. We are discussing ideas. But I think there is a basis for suggesting that ultra-nationalists do tend to believe that the integrity and patriotism of those less forthright are somehow suspect. This prompts them to arrive at somewhat bizarre and over-conspiratorial conclusions.
However, the role of the individual did seem to matter on one count: the future role of Narendra Modi.
There is no question that Modi's role in this election was seminal. He addressed meetings in nearly 150 constutuencies, particularly in western India. His meetings were very well attended, marked by enthusiasm and invariably reported in the media. Without his presence, the Congress inroads in Gujarat would have been greater.
Modi's speeches in this election were quite focused on development and security. But his asides on the dynasty received maximum coverage--quite predictably. The "budiya"-"guriya" remarks in particular drew flak.
Throughout my visits to constituencies I made it a point to ask BJP workers about Modi. The responses were quite uniform. The BJP supporters believed that had Modi been the PM candidate, the party would secure more than 200 seats.
I can't say whether this perception was based on fact or wishful thinking. What matters is the fact that Modi excites the imagination of the BJP supporter.
At the same time, Modi carries the baggage of liberal derision. Many CMs from non-Congress parties admire Modi's administrative skills and development record. Yet, they fear any formal association with him on account of a Muslim reaction.
It would be fair to say that this Muslim veto has prevented Modi's emergence on an all-India plane.
Do we accept this veto meekly or should it be countered frontally?
A good way of countering it is by making sure Modi effectiveness is maximum. When I say he has to curb some of his rhetorical excesses, I am merely suggesting that the media must not be given any opportunity to attack him for being frivolous or personally offensive.
When I say that Modi must work on his national acceptability I do not say he should change his image. There is nothing worse or more pathetic than a leader trying to be what he/she is not.
Modi's image rests on three pillars:
As a Hindu icon, a modern day Shivaji.
As an efficient administrator committed to development. His Gujarat record speaks volumes.
As a no-nonsense leader, capable of taking tough decisions even at the risk of unpopularity.
It is tragic but nevertheless true that Modi's Hindu credentials have got linked to the Gujarat riots of 2002. This is a reality the BJP must live with. Any apology will undermine Modi's appeal as an uncompromising leader.
The key to building Modi is to relentlessly drive home his ability to take tough decisions which are for the national good. He will have to play on his humble origins and (subtly) even his Most Backward Caste status. Remember, there will be formidable opposition to his claim to be PM. To make Modi win, the BJP will have to look well beyond its traditional voters. We must also assume that apart from Shiv Sena and Akali Dal (and, maybe, AGP), there will be no other allies.
I also agree with those of you who have argued for a Modi-Jaitley combination. I have seen this duo working very effectively in 2002 and 2007. I look forward to the time this team can galvanise the country in 2014.
http://www.swapan55 .com/
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